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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          04/15 11:53

   Hog Prices Tumble Lower 

   Aggressive gains seen early Tuesday morning have quickly evaporated, 
allowing most nearby contracts to trade lower at midday. The swift reversal in 
the market has also limited buyer support through the cattle complex Tuesday 
morning. 

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst



GENERAL COMMENTS: 

   Sharp gains which developed early in lean hog futures have quickly 
evaporated. The lack of support under the current buying surge allowed strong 
pressure back into the market. May lean hog futures are trading nearly $1 per 
cwt lower, with most other contracts holding moderate to strong losses. Cattle 
futures remain under pressure with focus on beef values. Corn futures are 
higher at midday. May corn futures are 3 cents per bushel higher. Stock markets 
are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 69 points lower while Nasdaq is down 
57 points.

   LIVE CATTLE:

   Losses have expanded through morning trade with the focus on recent gains in 
the grain markets as well as abrupt market shift in the lean hog complex 
through the morning Tuesday. April futures are trading 57 cents per cwt lower, 
with all other nearby contracts holding 65 to 85 cent per cwt losses at midday. 
It appears that markets are willing to coast into closing bell, as they look 
for additional longer term market direction. Cash cattle markets remain 
undeveloped with bids still undeveloped. The few asking prices seen so far this 
week are holding at $149 to $150 in the South and $243 and higher in the North. 
But both sides appear to be firmly expecting to move prices in their respective 
direction at this point of the week. Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $2.03 
per cwt higher (select) and up $0.95 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 
88 total loads reported (42 loads of choice cuts, 28 loads of select cuts, 
three loads of trimmings, 13 loads of ground beef).

   FEEDER CATTLE:

   Strong losses have developed through feeder cattle futures following the 
lack of support in live cattle futures and aggressive gains in grain prices. 
Trade volume remains extremely light across the complex, with losses of 80 to 
95 cents seen in several nearby contracts. The tight trading range seen between 
April and November contracts could create some uncertainty about breaking out 
of the current market range over the spring and summer months. 

   LEAN HOGS:

   Lean hog futures have posted an aggressive reversal through morning trade, 
although the current trading range is likely to do very little to the market 
from a technical standpoint as prices continue to chop around in a moderate but 
current trading range. Triple-digit gains have quickly been replaced by 
moderate to strong losses in nearby contracts as traders focus on weaker pork 
prices in the morning report. It is uncertain just how much support will 
redevelop before closing bell given the midday market volatility and light to 
moderate trade. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog 
report. The weighted average price fell $1.91 per cwt to $116.00 per cwt with 
the range from $105.00 to $116.05 per cwt on 3,561 head reported sold. Cash 
prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa Minnesota Direct 
morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report reported 161 loads with 
prices slipping $1.66 per cwt. Lean hog index for 4/11 is at $125.55 down 1.20, 
with a projected two-day index of $124.12 down 1.43. 

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


(SK)

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