Cattle on Feed Preview 11/20 17:00
By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Actual Guess Range
Cattle On Feed:
On Feed November 1 100.0% 98.5-101.0%
Placed in October 95.5% 90.5-100.0%
Marketed in October 92.5% 92.0-96.5%
After totaling slightly higher than 2013 last month, big lot placement
activity should return to the dominant pattern of lagging behind year-ago
levels. In fact, if the trade guess essentially nails the USDA assessment,
the October placement total will fall 3% below the 2011-2013 average and
represent the second-smallest in-movement for the month since the data
series began in 1996.
Our guess is that smaller placement activity last month will prove to be
especially connected to Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. Much better wheat
pasture potential than 2013 probably kept more lightweight feeders away
from the feed bunk this year.
Should October placement activity be documented as even smaller than
private analysts are pegging, traders could quickly conclude that the
current premium of February live futures is inadequate, especially if
conditions in feeding country continue to support fears of an early
For more Harrington comments check out http://www.feelofthemarket.com
For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here to sign up for DTN Snapshot.