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USDA Hogs & Pigs Preview               03/26 17:45

By John A. Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

             March 1 Hogs & Pigs Preview by John A. Harrington

                          USDA Actual   Average Guess   Guess Range

All Hogs March 1                            107.0%     105.0-108.5%
Kept for Breeding                           103.5%     102.5-104.5%
Kept for Marketing                          107.0%     105.0-109.0%
WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
180# Plus                                   107.0%     104.5-108.0%
120-179#                                    106.0%     103.0-108.5%
50-119#                                     107.0%     104.0-109.0%
Under 50#                                   109.0%     104.0-106.0%
FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS*
Dec-Feb                                     104.0%     103.0-104.0%
Mar-May*                                    103.0%     102.0-104.0%
Jun-Aug*                                    102.5%     108.0-112.0%
Winter Pig Crop                             109.5%     104.5-111.0%
Dec-Feb Pigs per Litter                     105.5%     101.5-104.0%


The big question these numbers will answer is not about herd expansion per 
se, but "how much expansion?" Given the likelihood of the revision of 
prior reports, it may take some study after the report is released at 2 
p.m. CDT on Friday before analysts and traders can get a good handle on 
potential market impact. At the very least, we would expect to see upward 
adjustments in the summer and fall pig crops of 2014 (i.e., larger totals 
that make more sense with actual slaughter data). 
Interestingly, trade guesses on the heavy end of the market hog weight 
breakdown seem to be small given the fact that weekly kills in March so 
far have exceeded 2014 by 8%-10%.  
For more from John, visit http://www.feelofthemarket.com/
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