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Cattle on Feed Preview                 11/20 17:00

By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

                    USDA     Average
                   Actual     Guess        Range
Cattle On Feed:
On Feed November 1           100.0%     98.5-101.0%
Placed in October             95.5%     90.5-100.0%
Marketed in October           92.5%      92.0-96.5%


After totaling slightly higher than 2013 last month, big lot placement 
activity should return to the dominant pattern of lagging behind year-ago 
levels. In fact, if the trade guess essentially nails the USDA assessment, 
the October placement total will fall 3% below the 2011-2013 average and 
represent the second-smallest in-movement for the month since the data 
series began in 1996.
Our guess is that smaller placement activity last month will prove to be 
especially connected to Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. Much better wheat 
pasture potential than 2013 probably kept more lightweight feeders away 
from the feed bunk this year. 
Should October placement activity be documented as even smaller than 
private analysts are pegging, traders could quickly conclude that the 
current premium of February live futures is inadequate, especially if 
conditions in feeding country continue to support fears of an early 
winter.
For more Harrington comments check out http://www.feelofthemarket.com
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